Trucking Capacity Crisis: Rejections Up 4x on Same Volume

The freight market is experiencing an unprecedented capacity crisis, with carriers rejecting loads at four times the normal rate despite stable volumes. This isn’t a typical demand-driven cycle; instead, capacity is exiting the market faster than new trucks can enter, driven by escalating costs, driver shortages, and regulatory hurdles. Discover why the market will remain tight and what shippers and brokers should be watching. Tender rejection rates have surged to roughly 14% — about three times their 2023 levels — while truckload volumes over the past three years are up only 9%, according to a Tuesday Sonar market update by Julie Van de Kamp. The divergence means carriers are rejecting nearly four times as many loads on roughly the same amount of freight, a dynamic that signals a structural supply problem rather than a demand-driven cycle.