Secret Harbour shock: One Nation claims historic WA lower-house breakthrough as counting continues

One Nation has claimed a historic breakthrough in Western Australia after the ABC projected Luke Herdegen to win the Secret Harbour by-election, a result that would give the party its first seat in the WA Legislative Assembly. The outer-southern Perth electorate had been regarded as a very safe Labor seat. It was left vacant after former Labor minister Paul Papalia resigned, and 16 candidates contested Saturday's by-election. The result is politically significant well beyond one electorate. A seat that Labor won comfortably at the 2025 state election has shifted dramatically, providing a fresh warning to the major parties about voter frustration in fast-growing outer-suburban communities. But there is an important qualification. The Western Australian Electoral Commission says election-night figures are indicative only. The full count will not be completed until after the postal-vote deadline at 9am on 3 September, when all eligible postal ballots have been received and preferences can be fully distributed. That distinction matters. Media organisations can project a winner when the available count makes the outcome clear enough, but the Electoral Commission's final declaration is the formal result. Secret Harbour sits between Rockingham and Mandurah and includes many young and working families. Cost-of-living pressure, housing, local services and dissatisfaction with the major parties were prominent themes around the campaign. The scale of the swing will now be studied closely by both state and federal political strategists. For Labor, the loss raises questions about whether support is softening in areas once treated as dependable territory. For One Nation, the result offers momentum and a foothold in a chamber where it has never previously held a lower-house seat. The Liberal Party and the other candidates also shaped the preference flow, but the strongest message from the night is that voters were prepared to move sharply away from the previous result. Downunder Voices will treat the outcome as projected until the official count is completed. The next key date is 3 September, when the postal-vote deadline passes and the WA Electoral Commission can move toward the final distribution of preferences.