New study: Hormuz just one of many shipping chokepoints

The Strait of Hormuz deserves attention, but it is only one part of a wider network whose disruptions can expose economies and companies to abrupt trade, cost and supply-chain shocks, a new study finds. The key risk is not simply that a waterway closes permanently, argues Oxford Economics. More commonly, threats to trade routes produce delays, diversions, reduced vessel capacity, higher insurance and freight costs, and prolonged uncertainty. In the current environment, Oxford sees any progress toward reopening disrupted routes as likely to be uneven, describing a “one step forward, two steps back” pattern through the rest of the year. For example, continuing violence by Yemen-based Houthi rebels in the Red Sea and the short-lived nature of June’s memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran emphasize that assessment.