Freightos Weekly Update: Red Sea container traffic set for full return in Q1

Trends in international ocean logistics seem even more confusing than usual lately: more Iranian attacks but more Hormuz traffic; more crude exports but oil prices still around $100 per barrel; more risk of Houthi attacks on passing ships, but more container vessels returning to the Red Sea anyway. Iran has stepped up the frequency of attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz, partially because transits and crude flows through the waterway have increased in recent weeks. Last week an Iranian projectile sunk a Dubai-linked container vessel, indicating that even some container ships are taking the risk of transiting the strait, though most traffic still comprises tankers. Despite some estimates that the increase in tankers exiting the Persian Gulf is contributing to Middle East crude exports approaching pre-war levels, crude prices – still pricing in elevated risk – remain high. Houthi-Saudi violence is intensifying, with recent Houthi advances along the Red Sea increasing its potential leverage over maritime traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the likelihood of attacks on passing vessels.