Australia must treat the 2026–27 El Niño as a national emergency for resilience

Australia is entering what the Bureau of Meteorology and independent researchers now warn could be the strongest El Niño on record. The Pacific ocean temperature change has already exceeded 2°C in six months, the BoM says, and separate research suggests climate change has greatly shortened the odds of such an extreme event. The UN’s weather agency has added to the alarm — the phenomenon is likely to persist into early 2027 and carries “the potential to deliver a massive blow to communities and economies across the world.” These are not abstract scientific findings. For ordinary Australians the consequences will be immediate and varied: intensified heat, longer and deeper droughts in some regions, heightened bushfire risk, and sudden, severe storms and flood events in others. That unevenness is part of the problem. Communities that are already fragile — small farming towns, coastal settlements, the Torres Strait and parts of northern Australia — will feel the impacts first and hardest. Businesses that depend on reliable seasons, from horticulture to tourism, will face disrupted incomes and higher costs. The emergency nature of this El Niño has to change how governments, businesses and communities prepare. Early warnings from the BoM and global agencies must translate into decisive, practical action now: emergency water planning, scaled-up support for firefighting and first-response capacity, contingency funding for farmers and regional communities, and urgent stress-testing of the power system and supply chains. These are immediate, risk-management responses; they do not preclude longer-term action on climate mitigation and adaptation, which must continue in parallel. There is also a regional dimension. Australia sits beside Pacific island nations that are disproportionately exposed to climate shocks and have less capacity to absorb them. When international bodies warn of a global shock, our obligations as a neighbour become both moral and practical: we should be ready to surge humanitarian and technical assistance to Pacific partners, and scale up regional disaster-response coordination. The coming months should also catalyse better public understanding of the links between climate change and extreme weather. Research pointing to climate change shortening the odds of record events should not be used to paralyse debate; it should sharpen it. Australians need clear, evidence-based communication about what to expect and what to do, and governments must be transparent about the limits of predictions and the likely duration of disruptions. For households, common-sense preparedness — planning for extreme heat, ensuring access to safe cooling and water, checking insurance and emergency plans — will help, but will not be enough for many vulnerable people. That is why public policy must focus on protecting those least able to prepare: renters, low-income households, remote communities and small businesses. We do not yet know the full economic toll this El Niño will exact, but the warning signs are clear. The combination of record ocean warming, expert research and UN advisories should be treated as a prompt: to act quickly, to support the vulnerable, and to stand ready to help our Pacific neighbours. Preparing now is the cheapest and most humane option; ignoring the warnings would be reckless.