A late‑campaign wobble: what One Nation’s Melbourne candidate quitting tells Victorians

Four weeks from polling day in Victoria, One Nation’s Melbourne candidate Matthew Collins stood down after offensive comments on his social media accounts came to light. The swift apology and resignation are facts; so too is the timing, in the frantic final month of a state campaign where the major party leaders are trading pledges and the Greens say their internal polling now puts them ahead of Pauline Hanson’s party. Taken together, these developments are not merely political theatre. They are a reminder that candidate quality, party discipline and voter vigilance matter more when margins are tight. Elections always produce scandals and gaffes. What makes this episode notable is the proximity to election day and the contest’s tightness. When a candidate withdraws so close to polling, it creates immediate practical problems for the party — campaign disruption, potential voter confusion and an awkward scramble to shore up local organisation. For the major parties and the Greens, it is an opportunity to press on weaknesses; for voters it is a jolt that invites questions about who is being put forward to represent them. The Greens’ internal polling, which they have shared publicly, suggests progressives are nudging ahead of One Nation in primary votes. Opposition leader Jess Wilson has begun openly criticising Hanson’s party. These are not unrelated facts. Populist surges are often volatile; they can peak and fissure when subject to scrutiny or when mainstream rivals close ranks. For ordinary voters this matters because a shift in the balance among minor parties can shape preference flows and outcomes in marginal seats that decide a government’s ability to implement its agenda. There is, however, a risk in over‑celebrating a rival’s misfortune. Parties seeking to exploit such moments must be careful not to appear opportunistic or to lower the tone of the campaign. Victoria’s voters deserve better than a slugfest of personal attacks; they want substantive contrasts on issues that affect everyday life — jobs, health, dental care, cost of living and workers’ rights — all subjects now being emphasised by the major leaders as the campaign enters its final month. For One Nation, the Collins episode should trigger serious internal reflection: how are candidates selected, what checks are in place on public statements, and how will the party rebuild credibility? For other parties, it is a reminder that the electorate rewards competence and penalises chaos. For voters, it is a call to look beyond headlines and social media outrage to the substance of policies and the track record of those seeking office. If the Greens’ polling proves accurate and One Nation’s momentum is waning, the coming fortnight will be decisive. Campaigns in their final weeks are as much about trust as they are about slogans. Victorians face a choice not just between parties but between the kind of politics they want — one that prizes scrutiny and standards, or one that rewards brinkmanship. That choice should be made on policy and performance, not on who flinches first when a scandal breaks.